The Dollar Forecast Is Bullish, Get On Board While You Can

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Overview of the euro, dollar, pound, yen, aussie and gold prices on April 7

EUR / USD

Today, during the Asian session, the couple EUR / USD grows moderately, retreating from local lows updated the day before. As before, the current attempt to strengthen the single currency can be called “technical”, while the demand for the euro remains quite low. However, investors are optimistic about the reports of European countries, which indicate a decrease in cases of new infections with coronavirus, which gives some hope and supports the euro. Published macroeconomic statistics from Europe so far leaves much to be desired. So, the data on the dynamics of production orders in Germany released on Monday reflected a decrease of 1,4% mom in February after an increase of 4,8% mom in the previous month. Analysts had expected a decline of 1,9% m / m. According to preliminary estimates for April, the Sentix investor confidence indicator crashed from –17,1 to –42,9 points, which turned out to be noticeably worse than market expectations of –30,3 points. The focus of investors on Tuesday is German statistics on the dynamics of industrial production for February.

GBP / USD

Today, during the Asian session, the GBP / USD pair is growing, retreating from local lows since March 27. The pound is gaining after an uncertain decline last week, which forced him to retreat from highs since mid-March. Some pressure on the British currency has the hospitalization of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Previously, it was self-isolated and worked remotely due to infection with coronavirus, but later it was still forced to seek medical help. British macroeconomic statistics remain negative. So, on Monday the index of business activity in the construction sector came out, which fell in March from 52,6 to 39,3 points against the forecast of a decrease to 44 points.

AUD / USD

Today, during the Asian session, the couple AUD / USD grows, continuing the development of the “bullish” impulse formed at the beginning of the week. Now the instrument has added about 1% and is testing the 0.6150 mark for an upward breakdown. The focus of investors on Tuesday is the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Australia, as well as the RBA decision on the interest rate. As expected, the Australian regulator did not change the parameters of monetary policy and kept the rate at a minimum level of 0,25%. The accompanying statement noted significant risks of a slowdown in the global economy due to the coronavirus pandemic. Published statistics reflected a sharp decline in the index of activity in the service sector of Australia in March from AiG from 47 to 38,7 points. The vacancy index for the same period from ANZ fell 10,3% after rising 0,7% in February. Experts expected the appearance of negative dynamics, but expected a decrease of only 2,9%.

USD / JPY

Today, during the Asian session, the pair USD / JPY is significantly reduced, retreating from the local highs, updated at the beginning of the week. Now the instrument has lost about 0,4% and is testing the level of 108.70 for a downward breakdown. The yen is supported by some correction in the US currency and the publication of positive Japanese macroeconomic statistics for February. In turn, its more confident growth is hindered by fears of a state of emergency in the country today against the background of a sharp increase in the number of patients with coronavirus in Tokyo. Japan’s matching indicators index in February rose from 95,2 to 95,8 points, which was better than market expectations of 95,1 points. The leading indicators index for the same period jumped from 90,5 to 92,1 points with a forecast of 90,4 points.

XAU / USD

Today during the Asian session gold prices consolidate, retreating from the local maximums, which were able to be updated after a sharp growth of the instrument on the eve. Support for the instrument is still provided by the strengthening of alarming market sentiment due to a sharp slowdown in the global economy. The quarantine measures that many countries take today in connection with the spread of coronavirus have an extremely negative effect on almost all sectors of the economy, threatening the onset of a long period of recession or even depression. Demand for the dollar remains high, but also suffers from the publication of disappointing data from the US, which indicate a record drop in the labor market, rising unemployment and declining manufacturing activity.

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US Dollar Forecast: The USD Vs GBP, EUR Is ‘Moving Back To Its Long-Term Bullish Trend? Say MS

Janet Yellen’s recent comments about letting the US economy run hot haven’t undermined US Dollar to Pound Sterling (USD GBP) exchange rate strength.

  • The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate today (19/10/16): +0.15pct at 1.09915.
  • The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate today (19/10/16): -0.15pct at 1.22814.
  • USD Currency News: Janet Yellen hints at letting economy run hot
  • Fed Rate Hike Bets Hold: Odds on tighter monetary policy in December at 70%
  • GBP Remains Weak: Brexit tensions in government unsettle markets
  • USD/GBP exchange rate forecast: Will US and UK inflation data alter trajectory?

GBP/USD trended strongly on Tuesday afternoon as UK markets reacted bullishly to news that MPs would ‘very likely’ be able to vote on Brexit terms, despite Prime Minister May stating last week that such a thing would not be possible.

The US Dollar saw mixed movement. While sentiment for the currency was strong thanks to US inflation stats reaching 1.5% year-on-year, the expected result left the ‘Greenback’ weaker than a surging Sterling.

Demand for the US Dollar has remained muted ahead of September’s US Consumer Price Index data, with investors wary of piling into the currency at this juncture.

With signs of weakness still present within the domestic manufacturing sector the case for the Federal Reserve to return to its monetary tightening cycle remains mixed, limiting the appeal of the ‘Greenback’.

The US Dollar Pound (USD GBP) exchange rate continued to hold near its best daily levels on Monday afternoon and was on track to advance at around 0.2% against Sterling throughout the day.

GBP demand remained weak, allowing the US Dollar to advance even on the day’s mixed US ecostats. While typically low-influence, Empire’s October manufacturing score plunged by -6.8, causing some market concern over the continued health of the US manufacturing sector.

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Support for the US Dollar has remained a little mixed following comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen, with the prospect raised of monetary policy remaining looser for longer.

Even so, if the afternoon’s raft of US manufacturing and production data points towards a more resilient domestic economy then the USD/GBP exchange rate is likely to extend its recent gains further.

Despite suggesting the US economy could benefit from continued low monetary policy, recent comments from Janet Yellen have failed to weigh on USD/GBP exchange rates.

Speaking at the Boston Fed Conference, Yellen claimed that it could be beneficial to let the US economy run hot by allow inflation to overshoot targets and unemployment to drop below the sustainable level.

Noting some of the ‘plausible ways’ the economy could benefit from running hot, Yellen suggested that;

‘Increased business sales would almost certainly raise the productive capacity of the economy by encouraging additional capital spending. A tight labour market might draw in potential workers who would otherwise sit on the sidelines.’

Latest Pound / Dollar Exchange Rates

On Tuesday the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) converts at 1.091

At time of writing the us dollar to euro exchange rate is quoted at 0.916.

FX markets see the us dollar vs pound exchange rate converting at 0.809.

FX markets see the us dollar vs canadian dollar exchange rate converting at 1.396.

At time of writing the us dollar to australian dollar exchange rate is quoted at 1.612.

NB: the forex rates mentioned above, revised as of 7th Apr 2020, are inter-bank prices that will require a margin from your bank. Foreign exchange brokers can save up to 5% on international payments in comparison to the banks.

Other Pound Sterling / Currency Exchange News

British Pound (GBP) Weakens Further Versus US Dollar (USD) on Latest Brexit Headlines

News of government infighting over the Brexit weakened Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rates recently, with markets reacting bearishly to rumours the Chancellor may quit his position.

News that the tensions are rising in the government over the way Brexit should be handled unsettled the British Pound recently.

It has been reported that Chancellor Philip Hammond is at loggerheads with fellow cabinet members over the issue of immigration, with the Chancellor allegedly accused of trying to undermine the Brexit by arguing against curbing free movement.

Additionally, a strong rebuttal of Theresa May’s criticism of low interest rates from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney has furthered added to market uncertainty.

While Carney praised the work done by the government to create the framework in which the BoE operates, the Governor also stated that ‘we are not going to take instruction on our policies from the political side.’

US CPI to See USD/GBP Exchange Rate Volatility Tomorrow

US inflation data tomorrow is expected to show a strong rise towards target levels, which could help further boost US Dollar (USD) exchange rates.

Federal Reserve rate hike bets are already trending around 70%, but could rise higher, taking US Dollar exchange rates with them, if tomorrow’s consumer price index for September climbs from 1.1% to 1.5% as forecast.

The USD is becoming bullish again, according to Morgan Stanley;

‘We are increasingly believing the USD is moving back to its long-term bullish trend driven by widening yield differentials and output gap divergence. US data has improved, election uncertainties have subsided and risk appetite remains fragile, all factors which point to USD appreciation.’

‘We expect USD strength to be most pronounced against low yield G10 (JPY, SEK, GBP) while EM currencies may stay relatively resilient.’

British Pound to Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Will Inflation Data Impact GBP/USD Exchange Rate Outlook?

Although British Pound exchange rate movement has become increasingly decoupled from the latest economic data, Tuesday’s consumer price index figures could weaken GBP further if they show the acceleration from 0.6% to 0.9% forecast, due to signalling increased price pressures from the weakened Sterling.

According to Morgan Stanley, there could be some temporary short-term strength, although it seems that sentiment, rather than data, will continue to be the main GBP driver;

‘We are changing our forecasts to expect more GBPUSD weakness in coming quarters and little recovery next year. However, we expect some short-term strength due to the market’s large short positioning and signs of the government rethinking its hard stance on Brexit, including allowing Parliament to vote on Brexit negotiations.’

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As well as producing in-depth analysis of the latest currency trends for ERUK, Colin heads up the Business.

IELTS Listening 7 – Section 4

techniques and training

answering the telephone

Questions 31-33

Good morning, my name is Dr Mervin Forest and I specialize in management techniques and training. I’ve been invited here today to talk to you about the cost to the economy of bad management . and what I would like to dwell on first is an area that has recently been exercising everyone and that is coercion in the workplace, or to put it more simply, bullying.

It has been estimated that bullying at work costs the British economy up to four billion pounds a year in lost working time and in legal fees. And with the problem apparently on the increase, it is time that managers took on board what is happening. I would like to think that what is perceived as bullying is nothing more than lack of experience, insecurity or lack of awareness on the part of managers, and not a conscious effort to attack someone, but that is perhaps a case of, of . my being naive, or over-hopeful.

Before we break up into groups to look at the first task on the handout you’ve got, I’d like to give you a start with some of the main bullying methods that have been identified so far. Basically, what I’m going to do here is to give you examples of one or two points. Can you all read the OHP clearly? Yes? Right. Off we go.

Questions 34-40

The first item on the list is giving people tasks which managers themselves cannot do and which are, therefore, impossible to achieve. This is, in fact, a very common strategy used by managers to ‘manage’ their subordinates. It gives certain people a false sense of security as they watch others failing while they try to a task! This is not bad management; it is just plain stupid. All targets and goals set should be easily achieved within a realistic time-scale.

Sending memos to someone else criticizing the performance of a task where the individual has no way of replying is another common technique; especially when the manager concerned does not reply or makes it impossible for subordinates to contact him or her by not answering the telephone or not replying to e-mails. This is not the style of a sound manager, but rather the antics of someone with emotional problems. If you behave like that, don’t expect your staff to respect you.

And now the technological bully. It is interesting how all tools designed to help can be turned into dangerous weapons. The ‘urgent e-mail’ bully is fast becoming a problem in the office. Employees turn on their computers to be faced with a string of badly worded e-mails, making instant and often unrealistic demands, which reveal the hysteria mode of management. Have you ever felt a sense of dread before looking at your e-mail, even your personal messages? All companies should develop a company strategy whereby there is an a-mail code of practice, with offensive messages being forwarded to a designated person for appropriate action.

I would now like you to break up into groups and brainstorm other bullying techniques which you think you may have experienced and, perhaps, if you are honest, which you have been party to. I can think of at least nine more bullying strategies. I would also like you to consider ways in which you think that each of the techniques on your list can be countered.

Is everyone clear as to what the task is? Yes? Okay. You have got twenty minutes to do this.

Test Tip

Remember that although the information on the question paper will paraphrase the information that you hear, it will be in the same order. Make sure you keep to the word limit you are given and be careful to check your spelling at the end. You can write your answers in capital letters or lower case.

Questions 31-33

Write NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS for each answer.

Section 4:
You will hear a talk on bullying in the workplace, giving by a university lecturer to a group of students.
First you have some time to look at Questions 31-33.

Now Listen carefully and answer Questions 31 to 33:

Questions 34-40

Write NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS for each answer.

Now Listen carefully and answer Questions 34 to 40:

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