Forex Market Alert EUR On Verge Of Breakout

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Breakout Alert: Align Technology, Inc. Stock Is on the Verge of Big Rally

The stars are aligning for Align stock

Align Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALGN ) would have been the perfect acquisition for a company like Allergan plc (NYSE: AGN ). The Botox maker could have benefited from having the Invisalign product lineup in its portfolio. Alas, it didn’t make a deal and investors have seen ALGN stock go from a market cap of $7.5 billion in January 2020 to $23 billion now.

With Friday’s 3.2% boost, Align stock is now up 29% on the year, compared to the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ: QQQ ) rally of “just” 8.8%. It also allowed ALGN stock to make new all-time highs. Let’s look at the chart.

Trading Align Stock

After jumping over $220 in late-October, Align quickly climbed to $265. From there, it chopped between $220 and $275 for about six months. On Friday though, it finally broke out over that level. The question is, can the breakout hold this time?

We saw a similar move in January, which ultimately failed as Align stock cratered back down to $220. The current breakout has a few things working to its advantage though.

The first is where the rally started before it went on to break through resistance. During its false breakout in January, Align Technology stock began its rally from $220. This time though, it began around $250. Further, its MACD reading, which measures momentum, is breaking out of its downtrend and could help add fuel to the fire.

What do bears and bulls want to see from here? Bulls want ALGN to find support above $280. If that comes from consolidation right now or a further rally and pullback, it doesn’t matter. So long as this level is support, $300 and above shouldn’t be far off.

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For bears, they want to see $280 fail as support. Should it do so, there’s no clear level of support between $275 and $260, giving short-sellers a little room to breathe.

A Further Catalyst to the Breakout

The technicals are a big part of any stock’s breakout performance, but that’s only the fuel. Often times, the fuse is based on fundamentals. That’s why it’s so important to use both when looking for prospective stocks to buy or sell.

In the case of Align stock, business is going great. In late-April the company beat on earnings per share and revenue expectations. Sales grew more than 40% and operating cash flow jumped more than 60%, while gross and operating margins expanded.

Analysts are looking for full-year sales growth of 32%, followed by 22% growth in 2020. On the earnings front, analysts expect earnings to grow 21% this year and 25% next year.

As people want to look better and feel more confident (who doesn’t?), ALGN is a natural product to fill those needs. It’s also not a short-term trend and it’s no secret that people have wanted straight teeth for a long time. It helps that the economy is doing well. As a result of this secular, long-term trend, investors have aggressively bid up the stock.

It’s Not All Perfect

Despite the seemingly great situation with Align stock, not everything is perfect. When business is going great and shares are hitting new highs, the stock doesn’t tend to come with a low valuation. That’s true for companies like Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX ) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN ), and it’s true for Align too.

While analysts expect really solid growth over the next 24 months, at what price does it become too much? ALGN stock trades at a very full 60 times this year earnings and about 48 times next year’s estimates.

If we’re lucky, ALGN will do $2 billion in sales this year. Its market cap is $23 billion. For reference, Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB ) trades with a similar price-to-sales ratio, but has operating margins that are twice that of ALGN.

That said, the valuation doesn’t seem to be an issue right now, particularly now that earnings are starting to play catch up. But it’s something investors may want to keep an eye on.

Also pay attention to guidance. Analysts’ estimates exceed the top end of management’s second-quarter outlook for earnings and are right at the top end for their revenue forecast.

Without a top and bottom line beat, Align stock could falter with this high of a valuation. Although, it’s worth noting that ALGN has beaten both estimates four times in a row.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

EUR/USD On Verge of Clearing 2.5 Year Range High After Fed Hold

  • As expected, the Fed held rates unchanged at its meeting and offered little change to views on its next move
  • Debate over the premium owed the Dollar for its relative hawkish standing continues to define key levels and momentum
  • Risk trends is also taxed with speculation moving further astray of fundamentals after VIX dipped below 9 and SPX crawls

How are retail FX traders positioning in EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD and other majors as these pairs look on the verge of major breakouts or trend development? See the IG positioning data on the DailyFX Sentiment page

The Fed decision proved to be just a temporary distraction to the broader bear trend that has enveloped the Dollar over the past two months. Now that it is passed, the disparity between prevailing price and fundamental value is squarely on the shoulders of speculators and the extent of their tolerance for stretching such an impressive run. In the hours following the FOMC’s heavily anticipated hold on the benchmark rate to its range of 1.00 to 1.25 percent, the Greenback has extended its slide. This has extended the 13-month lows of the ICE Dollar Index, but hasn’t navigated that particular benchmark into or through any critical technical boundaries. Amongst the crosses, however, the technical implications are far more significant. The EUR/USD carries the most weight as the FX market’s most traded currency. The advance continued into the Asia session to pushed the pair above 1.1700 which consequently presents a test of the upper threshold of the pair’s two-and-a-half year range.

Other Dollar-based majors have are at or modestly beyond significant boundaries. The AUD/USD and USD/CAD have extended remarkable runs that already surpassed their respective Dollar boundaries. NZD/USD in the meantime has just surpassed a significant high and remarkable technical level this morning. GBP/USD is attempting to break the 38.2% Fibonnaci retracement of its post-Brexit range – marrying technicals and fundamentals. As has been the case for most markets recently, the persistence of Dollar’s drive depends on speculation, but momentum and conviction rest with the fundamental fuel behind the drive. For the Dollar, the loss of altitude is due to a diminished relative value the currency has enjoyed as the first mover in the inevitable reversal of extreme monetary policy. It’s not that the Dollar is facing serious risk or has seen its fundamental bearings collapse, rather we have seen its counterparts close the gap. Determining at what point this rebalance of value hits equilibrium will define when this trend runs out of energy. In the meantime, the approach for trading the Dollar should be active where opportunities arise but also appropriate for the conditions – managed risk, expected time frame and greater attention.

While the monetary policy theme continues to play out, the economic backdrop of robust growth in the US continues to see its fundamental charge erode. In contrast to the previous day’s consumer sentiment survey (Conference Board) offering up the second highest reading in 16 years, polls are showing confidence in the Trump administration’s key campaign promises – infrastructure spending and tax reform – are fading. Following up on the IMF’s downgraded growth forecast on its own downgraded expectations for these business friendly programs, ratings agency Moody’s issued a note Wednesday highlighting the delay on the infrastructure effort. Add a burgeoning concern over another debt ceiling standoff for the US, and the S&P 500’s climb looks increasingly at-risk. Momentum has decelerated sharply for the benchmark equity index and the VIX plumbs new extremes every day. The markets are a house of cards with plenty of unfavorable weather in the forecast. We discuss the practicalities of trading in these conditions in today’s Trading Video.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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