Bitcoin Bulls Reject Break Out; New Lows On The Way

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Analyst: Bitcoin Bulls Are Back, Critical Move Expected Soon

There have been two differing opinions on where Bitcoin prices will go next. Some are calling for an imminent pullback and possible final capitulation while others are confident that this is the beginning of the new bull market and it will be all up from here on. Major Similarities From 2020 Trend Reversal Analyzing previous chart patterns and market movements offers a great insight into what could possibly play out next in the current situation. The charts from the 2020 – 2020 bear market and final trend reversal could almost be overlaid onto what has happened for the 2020 – 2020 situation. There was a final capitulation in August 2020 when Bitcoin prices broke down to $200 for the second time that year. This marked a slump from a previous peak of over $1,100 which is around 82%. This time around the slump in December dropped prices to $3,200 which is around 84% down from the all-time high, all very familiar territory. Since then we could almost say that the trend has reversed and that was the bottom. Bitcoin is currently up over 60% since its mid-December dump. Crypto markets in general have gained closer to 80% since their lowest levels late last year. Those early charts foretold another capitulation though before the bull market really kicked in. A repeat of this could see Bitcoin slowly grind up to late $5,000s and hitting resistance before dumping back to the low $4,000s again. Bitcoin after the low in 2020 and 2020.
Nothing outrageous is expected.
Except the bull market. But it is pretty normal. $BTC #bitcoin $BTCUSD pic.twitter.com/ATdvm0aZK8 — CryptoHamster (@CryptoHamsterIO) April 10, 2020
If that last dump is skipped as suggested by ‘CryptoHamster’ the bottom has definitely been in and we are on the way up from here on. Others predict that Bitcoin will test the 50 week moving average and pull back off it, returning to the 200 week MA as it did in 2020; We were comparing the end of the 2020 bear market to what’s happening today. We hit the 50MA got rejected, came back down to the 200MA then took off again. pic.twitter.com/C5zI5ptkk5 — @CryptoChartsJoe (Get Your Money Right) (@CryptoChartsJoe) April 10, 2020
No Retest of December Lows Crypto portfolio manager and chief investment officer of Ikigai Asset Management, Travis Kling, is also confident that there will be no dropping back to those low $3,000 prices, tweeting; “In the 7 weeks leading up to April 1, the chances we would retest the lows of mid-Dec diminished significantly. The price action in the month of April, beginning with the massive move up April 1, essentially put the nail in the coffin for new lows. A retest is now highly unlikely,” Either way the general sentiment for most of 2020 so far has been way better than 2020 where ‘crypto crash’ was one of the most popularly used terms to describe markets. At the time of writing Bitcoin had spent the best part of the past 24 hours trading above $5,200, level on the day. A clear uptrend has formed over the past week since the initial pump and a critical point will be reached at the end of this ascending triangle in a few days’ time when a major move is expected. Image from Shutterstock

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Bitcoin Price: Bulls Under Pressure to Break $8.2K in Rising Wedge

Ollie Leech | Jun 13, 2020 | 12:15

Bitcoin Price: Bulls Under Pressure to Break $8.2K in Rising Wedge

Ollie Leech | Jun 13, 2020 | 12:15

Bitcoin buyers appear to be eyeing the psychological $8,200 level above today, but fears of a rising wedge reversal could put an abrupt end to the rising price. Let’s take a closer look.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-Hour BTC/USD chart, the price appears to be consolidating inside a bearish rising wedge pattern between two pinching trendlines. This pattern usually marks the start of a bearish reversal, as bullish momentum thins out ahead of strong resistance.

In this case, the $8,200 level is the strong resistance and has played a critical role in preventing Bitcoin price 0 0 from retesting its recently printed new YTD-high at $9,096.

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The 0.236 Fibonacci level at $8,126.30 has also been a pivotal resistance against Bitcoin’s price, particularly during the last week of May when BTC was approaching maximum consolidation inside the ascending triangle. Bullish traders, however, have so far managed to secure this particular level during the last candle but buying volume on the MACD appears to be decreasing as they start to weaken.

What we are expecting to see, is bitcoin buyers continue to press on towards the $8,200 before running into strong selling pressure from auto-trading bots and short-term investors. The overlapping resistances from both the rising wedge and the $8,200 price point, will be a very difficult area to overcome and will need significant bullish volume to do so.

Furthermore, the RSI is now only 5% away from the overbought region above which will likely create additional friction in the uptrend. AND, there is also the $870 CME gap looming between the $8,000 and $7,130 levels, which we looked at in an earlier analysis .

Should bears take back control of the asset, and the rising wedge pattern plays out, then the $7,500 price point at the 0.382 Fibonacci level may provide temporary support in the short-term, but the CME gap could potentially drag Bitcoin’s price down further towards the $7,100 level.

If buyers succeed in closing above $8,200 however, we could see an attempt to reject the rising wedge pattern with a bullish breakout above the uptrending resistance. If that takes place, then we could see Bitcoin’s price retake the $8,320 level above before throwing back on to the previous resistance as new support.

2-Hour Chart

Over this closer time period, we can see a number of other signals favor bearish traders in the Bitcoin market right now.

On the MACD indicator, buying volume is close to flipping bearish on the histogram and the 12MA appears to be about to bearishly diverge beneath the 26MA.

On the Aroon indicator, we can see that the Aroon Up line (blue) is also now diverging beneath the Aroon Down line (yellow), which suggests that the current uptrend is weakening.

This is usually a good indicator to use to spot reversing trends, as it cross-references the number of highs and lows a price reaches within the last 14 periods. A higher amount of lows vs a decreasing number of highs causes the Aroon Up line to diverge with the Aroon Down line and indicates a change in momentum.

How do you think Bitcoin will perform over the rest of the week? Let’s us know in the comment section below!

[Disclaimer: The views and opinions of the writer should not be misconstrued as financial advice.]

Why the Bitcoin Price Will Reject the Bulls and Crash Even Lower

While financial forecasters are predicting a bullish 2020 for the bitcoin price, the cryptocurrency first needs to fight strong technical barriers in the near-term.

It is becoming difficult for bitcoin bulls to initiate a substantial push towards the $3,480-barrier and beyond. At the same time, their presence at the support area above $3,371 is stopping the price from further downside action. The situation has led bitcoin to remain rangebound, which is increasing the bearish sentiment in the near-term scenario.

On the intraday/weekly level, bitcoin could now pursue another selling action thanks to two pressing issues: lower volatility and volume. Let’s discuss them in the sections as follows.

Bitcoin is somewhat imitating the price action between January 26 and January 27. Back then, it was trending inside a triangle formation. As the pattern extended and trading range started contracting, the volume also began to diminish. In parallel, the gap between the upper and the lower Bollinger Band, which is directly proportional to an asset’s volatility, also started to minimize. On January 28, the bitcoin price broke down from the triangle pattern.

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