Active EURUSD Day Trading – March 25

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EURUSD – Euro / US Dollar

EUR USD Trading Chart

Trading Conditions

Trading time (UK time) 10:00 PM Sunday – 10:00 PM Friday

* Only if Margin Level > 100%

** Abnormal market conditions refer to Section 10.5 in Order Execution Policy of FxPro Financial Services Ltd, in point 11.5 in Order Execution Policy of FxPro UK Limited and in point 9.6 in Order Execution Policy of FxPro Global Markets Ltd.

The spreads provided are a reflection of the time-weighted average from 09:00AM – 21:00 PM (GMT) for the period of 01/8/2020 – 25/8/2020. Though FxPro attempts to provide competitive spreads during all trading hours, clients should note that these may vary and are susceptible to underlying market conditions. The above is provided for indicative purposes only. Clients are advised to check important news announcements on our Economic Calendar, which may result in the widening of spreads, amongst other instances.

Fixed spreads shall only apply for ‘Instant Orders;’ all other order types shall be subject to the Order Execution Policy.

The above spreads are applicable under normal forex trading conditions. FxPro has the right to amend the above spreads according to market conditions as per the ‘Terms and Conditions of Business’.

EUR/USD is the most popular currency pair on the Forex market, which is usually used by both novice and professional traders. That’s why it is the most recognized financial instrument among investors all over the world. EUR/USD responds significantly to the major data releases, which are displayed in the Economic calendar.

One of the main fundamental factors that have a great influence on this currency pair is the EU GDP, as well as the US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment rate. Keep in mind that the common monetary policy in the EU countries is controlled by the European Central Bank. In turn, it regulates the change in the interest rates. The significant difference between the interest rates of the Eurozone and the United States could strongly affect the EUR/USD quotes course. In terms of volatility, the EUR/USD currency pair, on average, has the daily range of 70-100 points.

If you are interested in trading the EUR/USD currency pair, contact FxPro today and open trading account in several minutes to test your trading strategy.

Trading recommendations for EURUSD pair on March 30

From a comprehensive analysis, we see a significant recovery of the quote relative to the downward rally since the beginning of March. And now about the details. Last week was in terms of an upward move, where the quote managed to rebound from the lows by more than 450 points, eventually returning us to the area of 1.1150. In fact, we got almost 60% working off relative to the inertia strokE, as a result of having a half-V-shaped model.

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Regarding trading approaches, we see that due to high activity and pressure from the external background, the tactic has been reconfigured towards local operations, where transactions are held for a day, if possible transferring them to the next period. It is not necessary to focus on trends because everything is changing very quickly at the current time. Now we are in upward momentum, and tomorrow we are flying down. Thus, work on the current situation is now most relevant, and most importantly profitable.

In terms of volatility, we see that Friday’s candle set a record of the week in terms of the activity of 194 points, which is 79% higher than the daily average. It is worth considering that we will soon pass the mark of two months, as the characteristic acceleration in the market continues.

Volatility details: Monday-155 points; Tuesday-183 points; Wednesday-115 points; Thursday-278 points; Friday-166 points; Monday-151 points; Tuesday-234 points; Wednesday-243 points; Thursday-326 points; Friday-194 points; Monday-191 points; Tuesday-160 points; Wednesday-133 points; Thursday-188 points; Friday-194 points. The average daily indicator relative to the volatility dynamics is 108 points (see the volatility table at the end of the article).

Analyzing the Friday day, we see two characteristic bursts of activity, where the first appeared at the start of the Europeans, which led to a local descent to the area of 1.0953, but at the start of the American trading session, the upward move resumed, updating the maximum of the day and reaching 1.1150.

As discussed in the previous review, traders considered the coordinates 1.0950 and 1.1080 as reference points, that is, working on their breakdown, where they eventually received positions to buy.

The trading recommendation from Friday coincided, having a solid profit in a short period of time.

(Buy positions should be considered after fixing the price higher than 1.1090, with the prospect of a move to 1.1145-1.1180)

Looking at the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we see a global downward trend, where the last two months of activity has grown at times, forming rapid price jumps both up and down.

Friday’s news background did not contain any noteworthy statistics on Europe and the United States, and the quote continued to follow the external noise.

In terms of the general information background, we continue to record the terrible anti-records that the COVID-19 virus rages in the world. So, at this time, more than 722,000 cases of infection have been recorded, and in America alone, this figure is 142,328. Every day, growth in the world is 8-10% and this entails a new avalanche of panic and economic decline.

So, the former head of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, who felt the crisis in 2008, said that the pandemic has a local character on the economy, and it does not bring a global recession.

“Yes, the current situation has some superficial similarities with the great depression: a very sharp decline in production, an increase in unemployment, a fall in financial markets. But basically, this animal is a completely different breed. In 2008, problems began in the financial sector with bad mortgages, with a loss of confidence in the banking system and other lenders. This was followed by a panic in the financial system, which hit the real sector of the economy due to a lack of credit. Now the economy has no such problems, and the reason for the decline lies in the non-economic plane. In addition, the banking system was seriously strengthened following the 2008 crisis,” the former head of the Federal Reserve told the publication Marketplace

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on pending home sales in the United States, where they expect a strong decline from 5.7% to 1.5%.

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see a price fluctuation within the level of 1.1080, being in the stage of a pullback from the value of 1.1150. In fact, we see a temporary stop, during which there were no impulses or price jumps. The current range of 1.1050/1.1150 again plays the role of a stretch model, where traders carefully analyze the situation, since, in the shortest possible time, there will be another surge.

In terms of emotional mood, we see that the panic formed on the basis of the spread of the virus and possible consequences forces market participants to take drastic actions in the form of an overflow of assets. Here there are speculators who begin to drive the quote.

By detailing every minute the available period, we see that with the opening of a new week, the price movement had the form of a pullback.

In turn, traders consider the values of 1.1050 and 1.1150 as reference points.

We can assume that in the very near future there will be another jump again, where it is not excluded that the existing framework will still play on the market. In any outcome, focus on the coordinates of 1.1050 and 1.1150, working on their breakdown.

Based on the above information, we will output trading recommendations:

– Buy positions should be considered after fixing the price higher than 1.1105, with the prospect of a move to 1.1145. The next stage will occur after fixing the price higher than 1.1155, with the prospect of a move to 1.1180-1.1200.

– We consider selling positions if the price is fixed below the 1.1045 area, with the prospect of a move to 1.1000-1.0950-1.0900.

Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that based on a significant upward move, the indicators of technical instruments on the hourly and daily periods have passed into a buy signal.

Volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year.

Volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuation from the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.

(March 30 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The volatility of the current time is 91 points, which is already very close to the daily average. It is likely to assume that as soon as the set limits fall, there will be acceleration.

Resistance zones: 1.1080**; 1.1180; 1.1300; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650*; 1.1720**; 1.1850**; 1.2100.

Support zones: 1.1000***; 1.0850**; 1.0775*; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500***; 1.0350**; 1.0000***.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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March 13, 2020 EURUSD – Don’t Pick Tops Or Bottoms

Today is a classic example regarding Tops & Bottoms in the markets. The EURUSD moved into open waters with running room to the upside today without any recent levels of significance in close proximity. This ‘forces’ most traders to start guessing where the market will turn or stop at. This is also known as Picking Tops & Bottoms. You will find tons and tons of free information on How to Pick Tops & Bottoms in the Forex market. This comes to no surprise and for obvious reasons… This keeps people in the cycle of loss as I like to call it! If we knew where the market would turn there would be no market, as everybody would be on the right side of it. So what do we do in a situation like today? Lets find out.

Like Chad mentioned in his Daily Commentary today he had a bias for a long at at 1.38960.

Today we have a first intraday push to the upside on the EUR/USD so my bias has changed and will prefer the long.

Click To Enlarge Image

Although we did make a nice move to the upside almost completing the Average Daily Range I can assure you traders were picking a top and turning point for the EURUSD as it continued higher. We can clearly see this when looking at the M15 chart below.

Click To Enlarge Image

We can clearly see a downwards move from yesterday’s high, set during the New-York session, continuing throughout the Tokyo session before the market broke to the upside. Last Friday’s highs aligned up nicely with yesterday’s highs and would have been the first ‘top’ chosen by most. This can explain the liquidity that was present at the level, contributing to the strong bullish move shooting through that area. Remember that for Smart Money to buy there must be an equal amount of sellers willing to sell, which was exactly what happened.

So what should we do? Follow the intraday direction of push and wait for an valid opportunity to join in with the direction of SM or wait for a full cycle to complete to the upside and re-asses the markets the next day. It comes down to waiting for SM to show that this is a true weekly push and wait for an opportunity to jump in the next day. In my opinion Picking Tops & Bottoms is a dangerous game that fails more often than not.

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